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June 16th Weekly Silver Market Preview

After hitting a 3-week high during early morning trading, gold and silver have since conceded those gains and are edging slightly lower. Safe-haven demand for precious metals has been a fixture in the marketplace as of the last few days and will prove to be an important factor for the wider investing world as this week rages on. Violence in Iraq is still catching plenty of attention and is growing in severity with each passing day, or so it seems.

The big piece of news this week is the monthly policy meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. Investors will be paying close attention to the meeting itself as well as what Janet Yellen has to say to media afterwards. As it stands, the investing world is expecting the FOMC to continue its tapering of Quantitative Easing.

Violence In Iraq Spurs Safe-Haven Demand For Metals

For the last two weeks or so, the world’s major news outlets have been reporting bouts of increased violence throughout much of northern Iraq. It seems as though now that US military forces are more or less out of the country entirely, militant groups now have free range to wreak whatever havoc they so choose. The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, also known as ISIS, is currently working towards the capital city of Baghdad and has been seen seizing control of key towns all over the country.

Iraqi security forces have struggles to contain these rebel fighters and have been more or less decimated by recent military engagements. Over the weekend it was reported that more than 1,700 Iraqi soldiers were killed by ISIS. Now, with nowhere else to turn, the Iraqi government is pleading with the US to provide some element of military support. The US has not ruled out the possibility of them getting involved in this most recent crisis militarily, but they have yet to commit to anything. Secretary of State John Kerry was quoted earlier this morning as saying he and his colleagues are weighing their current options, one of which is the use of drones against ISIS fighters.

As the stability of Iraq is called into question more and more with each passing hour, investors are beginning to turn more readily to safe-haven gold and silver. As this happens, the metals will pick up valuable momentum that they can hopefully ride throughout the duration of the week. As the next four days come and go, we will continue to keep a close eye on anything and everything happening between ISIS and the wider Iraqi population.

June 9th Weekly Silver Market Preview

Gold and silver spot values are edging higher during the early morning hours on Monday, fueled by some bargain-hunting buying after the previous two weeks’ losses. Last week gave investors a lot of economic data to mull over, most of which is still being digested by the wider marketplace. Among last week’s flurry of economic activity was the latest European Central Bank meeting as well as the non-farm payrolls data for the US in May.

Despite a midweek employment report that fell far short of market expectations, Friday’s non-farms data ended up besting expectations, even if only slightly. The data showed that more than 215,000 jobs were added to the US economy in May, causing the US unemployment rate to decline to 6.3%. This news prompted US equities to make gains and put even more downward pressure on gold and silver spot values.

Quiet Week Ahead As Investors Continue To Analyze Last Week’s Data

As a result of today playing host to almost no economic data, investors are instead shifting their attention to last week’s European Central Bank policy meeting and what it might mean for precious metals further down the road. The meeting, which took place last Thursday, saw the ECB finally decide to implement fresh monetary stimulus in order to combat intensifying deflationary pressures. The new stimulus measures include reducing the EU refinancing rate by 10 basis points and introducing a -.1% deposit rate.

As you might have expected, the news initially provided the euro currency with a noticeable blow, but shortly thereafter things more or less corrected themselves. What was surprising, however, was that Thursday saw gold and silver spot values both noticeably improve. This was the only day of the week in which precious metals posted gains, but those gains were only short lived seeing as Friday saw spot values fall once more.

This week is already looking like it will weigh on precious metals simply because there is not very many fundamental inputs on the slate. With few noteworthy things to talk about, investors will instead focus on last week’s data and what it means for metals. As of now, most equity markets from around the world are improving and trending upwards, following in the footsteps of US stock markets towards the end of last week. It is hard to say whether gold and silver will continue to gain momentum or not, but as of now it seems more like the opposite will happen so long as stocks continue their ongoing rally.

June 2nd Weekly Silver Market Preview

Gold and silver are trading steady through the early morning hours of Monday, though the downward pressure weighing on them is still quite evident. This week is going to be a busy one, as is the case with most first weeks of the month. There isn’t much US economic data on the slate this week, but rather a healthy load of data from the European Union, capped off by the European Central Bank’s policy meeting which is scheduled to be held on Thursday.

The crisis in Ukraine has officially faded to the background of the marketplace’s concern as there have been little to no new events to talk about. While the crisis is still far from resolved, the general lack of violence and deescalating of tensions is working against the spot values of gold and silver. Now, as safe-haven demand seems absent altogether, precious metals investors are growing increasingly concerned about the lack of bullish data in conjunction with the overflow of bearish data we have been seeing of late.

ECB Meeting May Have Potentially Harmful Outcome For Metals

The talk of the marketplace this week is without a doubt the European Central Bank’s monthly policy meeting. Ever since the last few days of last week, investors began holding their positions in anticipation of the meeting. Currently, investors are expecting to hear the ECB announce new monetary stimulus in the wake of Thursday’s meeting, but in all reality, this is mere speculation. Despite the widespread presence of deflation in and around Europe that has been a factor for the past year or more, there are still some market analysts out there who believe any monetary stimulus is still a while away.

With that said, it remains important that we discuss the possible ramifications fresh stimulus measures in Europe will have on metals. The formula is simple, more monetary stimulus means for a devalued euro currency. Should the euro lose any value, it is more than likely that the US Dollar will receive a significant boost. As is almost always the case when the US Dollar surges forward in value, gold and silver spot values are more than likely going to come under additional pressure.

In fact, it seems as though that pressure already began to mount before US markets opened today due to the latest EU manufacturing PMI reading for May. Compared to April’s manufacturing PMI reading of more than 53, May’s came in just barely above 52. This news prompted the US Dollar to make gains against the euro currency. Though gold and silver have not taken significant hits so far today, it is more than obvious that they are feeling a boatload of downward pressure.

Perhaps the only reason why gold and silver have not declined in value in the wake of the PMI report is the fact that China’s manufacturing PMI, released over the weekend, showed signs of a recovering Chinese manufacturing sector. Officially, China’s manufacturing PMI inched forward to 50.8, up from a reading of 50.4 in April. As you may or may not know, any PMI reading above the 50 threshold is indicative of a growing economy. As is almost always the case, upbeat economic data from China, the world’s largest consumer of precious metals, is going to help precious metals. Still, this week is far from over and investors will be waiting with bated breath to see just how things unfold over the course of the next 4.5 days or so.

May 19th Weekly Silver Market Preview

As of midday on Monday, gold and silver were experiencing mixed results but hovering near even. Some short-covering and mild bargain-hunting was enough to give metals a boost in the early morning hours, but as investor attention shifts to places other than the precious metals market, spot values have fallen back to earth.

The world is continuing to pay attention to the crisis in Ukraine, but just this morning tensions took a much needed step backwards. This happened as a result of Russian president Vladimir Putin calling upon his troops stationed along the border with Ukraine to withdraw from their positions. Up until this point, the Russian military built up a strong presence just over the Ukrainian border which put a lot of pressure on the Ukrainian military. Now that the Russian military and Russia in general are no longer seen as an immediate threat, the Ukrainian military has more of a reason to work even more tirelessly to oust pro-Russian rebels. Though tensions have taken a step backwards, the crisis in Ukraine is still very far from being resolved.

Possible Troubles Ahead For European Economies?

Many European stock indexes are trading lower today, led by a weaker Italian stock market. In addition to that, Italian and Spanish bond yields are on the rise which may be indicative of some pressure being felt by some lower to mid-level European economies. Recent economic pressures are only making it seem more likely that the European Central Bank will announce some sort of monetary stimulus at next month’s meeting. The prospect of monetary stimulus, however, is having a somewhat mixed impact on precious metals spot values.

Though it is normally true that monetary stimulus aids the spot values of gold and silver, looser EU monetary policy will almost assuredly put pressure on the value of the euro currency. Should the euro concede value, the US Dollar will more than likely make gains that would keep the downward pressure on spot gold and silver.

Also taking away from investor interest in gold and silver is the fact that US bond yields are back at respectable levels. After last Friday’s upbeat US housing report, 10-year bond yields pushed up above 2.5% for the first time in a few months. Despite current economic conditions making it seem like gold and silver should be flourishing on Monday, increased interest in US bonds is taking its toll on spot values. It will be interesting to see how the rest of the week plays out from a precious metals perspective, because even though all the signs are pointing towards a positive 5-day trading session for metals, such has not been the case thus far.

May 5th Weekly Silver Market Preview

Both gold and silver spot values are trading up on what has proven to be an uneventful start to the first full week of May. As it stands currently, gold is trading just slightly above the $1,300 threshold while silver is more than 30 cents below the $20/ounce mark. In addition to mulling over last week’s economic data today, investors are also concerning themselves with the ongoing violence in Ukraine which has gotten even worse over the weekend.

This week, from an economic data standpoint, is not expected to be nearly as eventful as last week. Despite that, the investing world will continue to reflect on the plethora of data that was made public a week ago.

Crisis, Violence In Ukraine Intensifies

The crisis in Ukraine has been in and out of the headlines for the past month or more. Violence in the large eastern European nation has come and gone but has more recently taken a stranglehold on the eastern half of Ukraine. Pro-Russian rebels have seized both towns and buildings throughout the country and are not going to simply lay down their arms and give up peacefully.

This weekend, Ukrainian military forces were dispatched in order to dispel a large number of rebels who had taken over official buildings across the country. These operations have resulted in dozens of deaths and have worked to further diminish the stability of Ukraine. Now, as the violence continues, the persisting question is with regard to whether or not Russia will involve itself in Ukraine. As you may or may not be aware of, Russia currently has a strong military presence along its border with Ukraine. The increased violence is currently working to help safe-haven demand for both gold and silver. It is interesting to see safe-haven demand of this nature so immediately after such a positive week of US economic data.

Last week gave investors a lot of US economic data to mull over, but none was more important to investors than Friday’s US Labor Department jobs report for April. The market was anticipating to see little more than 200,000 jobs added to the US economy, but were pleasantly surprised to see actual figures come in around 280,000. In addition to the jobs figures, investors also received a somewhat lackluster first quarter GDP report and another reduction to Quantitative Easing as a result of last week’s FOMC policy meeting. Though it is still early, investors are pleasantly surprised to see safe-haven demand drive spot values upward after the weekend. It will be interesting to see how the rest of the week pans out for metals, especially considering it will be significantly quieter 5-day trading session.

April 28th Weekly Silver Market Preview

Gold and silver both conceded some value as a result of a technical correction after Friday’s gains. The market is continuing to focus on Ukraine as tensions across the country are not deescalating in the slightest. Unlike last week, however, there will be a significantly greater number of US economic reports to divert some of the attention away from Ukraine.

Among this week’s reports from around the world is a key piece of Chinese economic data, due out on Thursday. Last weeks downbeat manufacturing PMI for China has only worked to increase worries with regard to the Chinese economy’s actual strength. It will be interesting to see how the Chinese central bank combats both a weakening manufacturing sector and increasing financial worries.

Crisis In Ukraine Only Getting Worse

Last Friday, investors were very apprehensive with regard to how the crisis in Ukraine would develop over the weekend. it turned out that things did not really change much, but a few military observers were taken hostage by anti-Ukraine rebels. Just today, the governor of Kharkiv was shot in the back by rebels who are currently attempting to take control of the city.

The Ukrainian military is unable to respond out of fear that they will be invaded by the Russian military, which is currently positioned along the Russian border with Ukraine. Over the weekend, Russian aircraft were reported to have violated Ukrainian airspace on a number of occasions. The reason Ukraine’s military is standing idly by while pro-Russian rebels take over the eastern half of the country lies within a statement made by Russian officials claiming that any further attacks on Russians in Ukraine will be viewed as attacks on Russia itself. Because the Ukrainian military is outclassed and outnumbered by Russia, they are avoiding doing anything that may provoke their militarily dominant neighbor.

Included in this week’s US economic data are Wednesday’s GDP report and Friday’s April jobs data. The FOMC is scheduled to meet until Wednesday, at which point the market is expecting to hear of another reduction to Quantitative Easing. It will be interesting to see how the next few days’ events will affect spot gold and silver as we say goodbye to April, and thus the first quarter of the year.

April 14th Weekly Silver Market Preview

Gold and silver experienced mixed results on Monday but were given signs that this week may end up being positive for precious metals. Tensions across Ukraine are on the rise once more and the entire crisis is on the verge of becoming violent once more. The Ukrainian military has recently been mobilized in order to squash pro-Russian demonstrations which have surfaced within the past week or so.

Remarks made by the president of the European Central Bank may have prevented spot gold and silver from making significant gains on Monday, What’s more, the ECB president may soon be making monetary policy decisions that will have precious metals investors paying attention even more.

Crisis in Ukraine Resurfaces And Catches the Market’s Attention

For the past week or more there have been a rising number of pro-Russia demonstrations taking place all over Ukraine. In the last few days these somewhat peaceful demonstrations are becoming increasingly violent as pro-Russian demonstrators are beginning to lay claim to buildings and checkpoints. The Ukrainian army gave the demonstrators an ultimatum of either leaving the buildings they have taken over or facing anti-terrorism measures, an ultimatum that has since passed. The military has not taken any action against the demonstrators but as time progresses the chance that the situation(s) will turn violent will inevitably increase.

These demonstrations are coming in the immediate wake of reports claiming that Russia rigged the vote which saw Crimea rejoin the Russian Federation. There is no saying how the crisis will play out over the next few days and weeks, but so long as tensions remain high the safe-haven demand for precious metals will too.

Finally, there was a report released today claiming that Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank, said that monetary stimulus measures may not be too far away. Recently, investor worries with regard to rising deflationary pressures has put a lot of pressure on the ECB to do something in order to avoid widespread, long-term deflation. There is no saying when Europe’s central bank will actually take decisive action with regard to altering monetary policy which is why we will continue to keep an eye on the situation.

April 7th Weekly Silver Market Preview

Gold and silver are feeling selling pressure early on Monday despite both metals having recorded gains to close out last week. After investors were greeted with a weaker than expected employment report for March on Friday, demand for gold and silver rose in conjunction with spot values almost immediately. Though the numbers did not fall too far below market expectations, the fact that payroll growth fell below expectations after the chairperson of the Federal Reserve just recently spoke about the strength of job growth in the United States was unnerving to some.

As opposed to last week, this 5-day trading session is not expected to have nearly as much economic data on the table. Instead, the market will focus on the words of high-ranking Fed members and more closely focus on the price action of both US equities and the US Dollar.

Gold and Silver Post Gains Thanks to Weaker Employment Report

Prior to last week’s release of the non-farm payrolls data from March, investors were extremely optimistic about what the report might show as far as job growth is concerned. Adding to this sense of optimism was recently positive remarks from high-ranking members of the Fed about their feelings on job growth over the long term. When Friday rolled around, however, that optimism was quickly dealt a dose reality due to the payrolls figures coming in short of what the market had been expecting. Compared to expectations of nearly 210,000 new payrolls added to the US economy in March, the report showed that instead only about 192,000 new payrolls were added.

Normally, this small disparity would not be enough to spark renewed interest in precious metals, but after comments from Janet Yellen and James Bullard with regard to the growing strength of the US economy it was more than enough to scare a few investors. Now, on Monday, profit-taking after Friday’s gains has taken center stage, driving the spot values of both gold and silver downward to below $1,300 and $20 threshold respectively.

US economic data due to be released on Monday is not of any great significance and will likely be overlooked by the wider investing community. Instead, investors are preparing for speeches scheduled to be made by president of the Fed bank in St, Louis, James Bullard, as well as one by the president of the Chicago Fed bank, Charles Evans. Thanks to last week’s sub-par employment report, European and Asian equities were also dealt a blow which means that these two men will be speaking to an audience that consists of more than solely US citizens.

March 31st Weekly Silver Market Preview

Gold and silver are trading near even to slightly lower during the first half of the last day of March. Unlike last week, this one is expected to yield a significant amount of market-relevant economic data from both the United States and Europe. After hearing members of the Fed speak positively about the current strength of the US economy all of last week, it will be interesting to see if this week’s data echoes what was said.

The market is continuing to keep an eye on the situation in Ukraine as Russian troops maintain their posts along the Russian/Ukrainian border. Tensions across the region he calmed down over the last few weeks but are far from eliminated as there have been no official resolutions between Russia, Ukraine, nor any other nation.

Economic Data Looms This Week

Throughout last week, investors saw the spot values of gold and silver decline at a steady rate mostly due to a lack of new economic or geopolitical happenings to talk about as well as the recently bleak long-term outlook on the spot values of gold and silver.

Little more than a week ago, Fed chairperson Janet Yellen was recorded as saying that interest rates in the United States might be on the rise as early as next spring. This caught a lot of investors off guard due to the simple fact that most of the market had not even entertained the thought of rising interest rates next spring. This news put a lot of selling pressure on gold and silver because rising interest rates make the opportunity costs associated with holding metals in lieu of other, potentially more profitable, investments a lot higher than those same costs are during periods of low interest rates. Though it is not a definite that interest rates will be risen within a year’s time, most investors are not taking any chances.

This week’s non-farm payrolls data is due out on Thursday and will catch the full attention of the market. The ECB is scheduled to have their monthly policy meeting on Thursday, after which the bank’s president, Mario Draghi, will address media questions. With year on year inflation rising by significantly less than the target amount, rumors with regard to the possible implementation of new monetary stimulus measures have been circulating around the marketplace.

March 24th Weekly Silver Market Preview

Gold and silver have continued upon last week’s decline on Monday thanks to a lack of bullish news. In fact, what little news there was on Monday worked against spot gold and silver almost entirely. This week is expected to be a quiet one as there are very few major events to look forward to.

The disagreements between Russia and Ukraine are still causing a rift between the two nations, but the entire situation has calmed down significantly from where it was at only a week or so ago. Over the weekend we saw reports of Ukrainian troops being ousted from military barracks by armed Russians. Now, as Russia actually seizes control of Crimea it will be interesting to see how Ukraine and their Western allies react.

Economic News From Around the World

In addition to the lack of bullish fundamental news, gold and silver are also being driven down in value by the recently poor performance put on by the Chinese economy. Ever since the turn of the year the Chinese have put out report after report of disappointing data.

Today added to that long line of disappointing reports, this time in the form of the HSBC preliminary purchasing managers’ index reading for March. Compared to a February reading of 48.5, March’s preliminary reading only came in at 48.1. This most recent report has prompted many to wonder whether or not the Chinese central bank will consider employing some sort of monetary stimulus to help their ailing economy.

Over the course of the next few months, expect investors to pay particularly close attention to any and all economic and financial developments from China. In case you missed it, there are rumors circulating that a second Chinese corporation may be defaulting on loan payments. If this is the case, it will be much more than the economic system in China that is worrisome.

Today’s EU and US PMI readings for March emitted mixed results, but ended up having little to no impact on the spot values of gold and silver. As we move forward into this week, it will be interesting to see what direction gold and silver head in. A massive sell-off has delivered a critical blow to spot values, though many investors are holding firm to the belief that 2014 will be a positive year for gold and silver.